USD/CAD Exchange Rate History
A decade of US Dollar–Canadian Dollar movements, with the events that drove them.
USD/CAD 10-year snapshot
USD/CAD currently sits roughly 66% through its 10-year range — in the middle of the decade range.
The last decade in USD/CAD
USD/CAD ("Loonie" in forex slang) is the world's second-most-traded commodity-currency pair after AUD/USD. Over 2016–2026, the pair traded between 1.21 and 1.46, driven primarily by WTI crude oil prices, BoC-Fed rate divergence, and US trade-policy headlines. Canada exports 75% of its goods to the US, making CAD uniquely sensitive to USMCA/NAFTA news and US tariff threats.
Long-term trend
No strong secular direction — USD/CAD has oscillated in a 1.20-1.45 range for over a decade. The 2014-2016 oil crash drove the pair to multi-year highs near 1.46, and recovery has been slow because oil prices never returned to their 2014 peaks. CAD's structural challenge: Canadian oil sands have higher break-even costs than US shale, so US energy independence after the shale revolution permanently weakened CAD's commodity premium.
Key events
Oil crash begins
WTI crude began a multi-year decline from $107 to $26 (February 2016), driven by US shale supply, OPEC market-share defense, and slowing Chinese demand. CAD weakened in lockstep.
USD/CAD rose from 1.07 (June 2014) to 1.46 (January 2016) — a 36% CAD decline in 19 months.
COVID + oil price war
Saudi-Russia oil price war combined with COVID demand destruction drove WTI briefly into negative pricing for the first time in history. CAD was hit hard as Canadian oil sands faced existential pressure.
USD/CAD rallied from 1.30 to 1.46 between February and March 2020, then reversed to 1.20 by May 2021 on oil recovery.
Russia invasion oil shock
Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered an oil-price spike to $130. Canada — as a major non-Russian oil exporter — became a strategic energy supplier to Europe. CAD strengthened against USD despite the broader USD strength of the period.
USD/CAD fell from 1.27 to 1.21 between January and April 2022 — a rare period of CAD outperformance.
BoC pauses while Fed continues
The Bank of Canada paused rate hikes at 5.00% in July 2023 while the Fed continued tightening to 5.25-5.50%. The 25-50bp differential weighed on CAD throughout 2023-2024.
USD/CAD rose from 1.31 (July 2023) to 1.38 (Oct 2023), then held above 1.34 through most of 2024.
Trump tariff threats
Renewed US tariff threats on Canadian imports drove CAD weakness. Even threats that were ultimately not enacted produced sustained CAD pressure.
USD/CAD rallied from 1.36 to 1.42 between November 2024 and February 2025.
BoC begins easing cycle
BoC cut rates aggressively through 2025 as Canadian inflation fell to target. The combination of BoC cuts and ongoing US trade-policy uncertainty kept CAD weak.
USD/CAD held a 1.36-1.42 range through 2025.
Practical takeaway
For Americans traveling to Canada (or Canadians sending money to the US), USD/CAD has settled into a 1.30-1.45 range that reflects post-shale-revolution structural CAD weakness. Watch WTI crude prices as the primary signal — sustained oil rallies above $85 typically support CAD. Time large conversions around BoC meetings (eight per year) and avoid converting on days with major US trade-policy headlines.
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Frequently asked questions
When was USD/CAD at parity?
USD/CAD traded near parity (1 USD = 1 CAD) from 2007–2013, with multiple periods where CAD was actually stronger than USD (USD/CAD below 1.00). The all-time low was 0.917 in November 2007. Since 2013, USD/CAD has not retested parity — the oil crash structurally weakened CAD.
Why is CAD called a commodity currency?
Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer and a top exporter of natural gas, lumber, and minerals. Energy alone accounts for ~25% of Canadian goods exports. WTI crude prices move CAD more reliably than any other input — a $10 sustained Brent move typically shifts USD/CAD by 1.5–2.5% over subsequent weeks.
What's the relationship between USD/CAD and oil?
Strongly inverse. Rising oil prices strengthen CAD (because Canada earns more from oil exports), pushing USD/CAD lower. Falling oil prices weaken CAD. The correlation is most reliable for multi-week trends; daily moves can be dominated by USD news.
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